Safe Withdrawal Rate Simulator
Test sustainable withdrawal rates against historical sequence of return risk and inflation variance.
Parameters
Success Rate
Simulations surviving years
Median Ending Balance
Adjusted for inflation
Historical Context
This simulation runs rolling periods through historical market data (1926-Present) using the specified asset allocation. The withdrawal amount is adjusted annually for historical inflation.
Note on 4% Rule: The canonical "4% Rule" (Bengen, 1994) assumed a 50/50 allocation over 30 years and historically achieved a ~95% success rate. Current valuations (high CAPE) and low bond yields may necessitate lower initial rates (3.3-3.8%) for early retirees or longer horizons.
Frequently Asked Questions
How frequently should this data be reviewed?
Industry best practices dictate a quarterly review of these inputs to ensure assumptions remain valid. Refer to the Practice Hub for compliance schedules.
What happens if the inputs are incorrect?
Incorrect inputs can severely impact long-term projections. We strongly recommend completing our Certification Program to understand the mathematical underpinnings of these models.
Are these figures guaranteed?
No. All outputs are projections based on historical or stated inputs. As detailed in our About section, fiduciary duty requires clear disclosure of these limitations to clients.